What could a General Election in Macclesfield look like today?
It is January 28 2024 this Sunday.
And one year from now, January 28 2025, is the last date a UK General Election could be held.
Whilst the Prime Minister is being coy about a date might be, Macclesfield Nub News and local political parties are eagerly awaiting a date where we all go to the polls.
It could be May, it could be June, it could be November. (The latter unlikely, given the USA go to the polls at the same time.)
But what could it look like if a General Election were held in Macclesfield right now?
How would Macclesfield vote towards electing their next MP?
This article will hope to provide more information on who could be Macclesfield's next MP, as well as links to all of the currently-confirmed candidates.
What we know about the Next General Election in Macclesfield So Far?
The first person to confirm they will be running to be Macclesfield's next MP, is Macclesfield's current MP. David Rutley MP won the vote in 2010, 2015, 2017, and 2019 for Macclesfield.
As you can see from the image above, David Rutley MP won the 2019 (last) General Election in Macclesfield.
Can he secure a fifth election victory in a row? He confirmed his candidacy in January 2023.
In October 2023, the Green Party selected Amanda Iremonger, who will be vying to be an MP for the first time.
Next to confirm was Labour's Tim Roca, who previously tried to be Macclesfield's MP in 2015. He is back for a second-time round, with an article about his candidacy on this link.
The Liberal Democrats in Macclesfield have selected their candidate, Neil Christian will be seeking to be elected in Macclesfield for the third time. He previously stood in the 2015 and 2019 elections, but did not win. Read more about him on this link.
Those four are the confirmed candidates so far, and the four parties which stood in 2019. However, it is not out of the realm of possibility that more parties and candidates could come forward.
The Reform Party have been contacted by Macclesfield Nub News to see if they will be putting a candidate up for election.
Independent candidates could also put themselves up for election, though none have been made aware to Macclesfield Nub News as of publication.
Opinion Polls
Macclesfield Nub News will be posting a round-up of the opinion polls at the end of each month.
These are third party polls from multiple sources, not done by Macc Nub.
Some polls only include the four declared parties, meanwhile some include ones that have not confirmed they are running in Macclesfield yet.
For more information on the methodology on the polls, please click the websites of the organisation behind the poll.
The polls come from recent days, which have been specified.
The current opinion polls for the Macclesfield parliamentary constituency are as follows:
ElectoralCalculus
ElectoralCalculus have been forecasting polls since 1992.
The pollster has one of the latest polls for the Macclesfield constituency.
They predict Labour will win Macclesfield, and give them a 76% chance of winning.
The Conservatives will lose their seat, and will lose vote share. They also predict gains for the Greens.
The Liberal Democrats are predicted to lose vote share too.
They also anticipate that the Reform Party will come in third place, however, Macclesfield Nub News have contacted the Reform Party to see if they are running, with no reply.
YouGov
Perhaps one of the best-known pollsters and survey firms, YouGov was founded in the year 2000. They are regularly cited in the national media, including for their latest constituency-by-constituency poll.
YouGov are predicting a Labour win in Macclesfield, but by a smaller margin than the ElectoralCalculus poll. (Less votes for Labour than ElectoralCalculus poll, more for Conservatives.)
They estimate in Macclesfield:
Conservative: 33%
Labour: 40%
Lib Dem: 11%
Green: 7%
Reform UK: 8%
Other: 1%
This poll also predicts that the Liberal Democrats will get more votes than they did in 2019, achieving their highest vote share since the 2010 Macclesfield General Election.
Reform beat the Greens again in this poll, but the Greens still get about three percent more in this poll than they achieved in 2019.
Read their data and methodology behind it HERE.
UKPollingReport
The newest predictor on the list, UKPollingReport is still in beta, but that doesn't mean they lack data on how Macclesfield could vote in the 2024/25 General Election.
They predict Labour will win by 9.2%.
Their findings are as follows:
Labour 46.1%
Conservatives 36.9%
Liberal Democrats 9.6%
Greens 7.4%
Other parties not included in UKPollingReport's findings.
Read more HERE.
Polls will continue to be posted by Macclesfield Nub News in the run-up to the General Election, particularly when we know a date.
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